Hot Jobs, Cold Feet

Something strange is happening in the U.S. job market. In May, job openings shot up to 7.8 million, climbing from 7.4 million the month before. That surprised economists, who had actually predicted a slowdown. On paper, it sounds like great news—more openings, more opportunity. But take a closer look, and the story gets murkier: hiring actually fell.

That’s the contradiction at the heart of this moment. Employers are clearly advertising roles, especially in industries like hospitality and finance. But when it comes time to make a hire, they’re dragging their feet. It’s not because they can’t find people. It’s because they’re hesitant to commit.

This is a job market shaped by caution. Companies are facing rising interest rates, unpredictable trade policies, and a cloudy economic forecast. They’re still smarting from the whiplash of the past few years. So instead of charging ahead, many are hedging their bets—listing roles, testing the waters, but ultimately sticking with the team they’ve got. Job postings are turning into something closer to a contingency plan than a firm intention to hire. It’s a case of corporate cold feet.

Meanwhile, workers aren’t exactly stampeding for the exits either. The quit rate—the percentage of people voluntarily leaving their jobs—is hovering around 2.2%, down from a pandemic-era peak of 3%. That’s a subtle but significant shift. During the Great Resignation, people were job-hopping aggressively, confident they’d land somewhere better. Now, most seem content to stay put. It’s not resignation in the restless sense—it’s resignation in the cautious one. People don’t want to gamble right now.

On the government side, things are cooling further. Federal job openings have dropped to their lowest level since May 2020. That’s likely due to hiring freezes and tighter budgets, but it adds to the broader feeling: everyone’s pulling back. Add in rising tariffs and election-year uncertainty, and it's no wonder businesses are reluctant to expand their teams.

Of course, the slowdown in hiring could also signal that the market is simply maturing. After months of blistering job creation—400,000 new positions a month during the post-COVID boom—the numbers are down, but not disastrous. May saw around 139,000 new jobs. June is expected to come in even lower, closer to 117,000. That might not be alarming—it could just mean the market is finding its footing, settling into something more sustainable.

Still, the gap between job listings and hires is telling. It’s not a labor shortage—it’s a confidence shortage. Employers are nervous. Employees are cautious. And everyone’s waiting to see where interest rates, inflation, and the election will push things next.

Right now, the job market isn’t crashing. It’s not overheating either. It’s coasting. But it’s doing so with one eye on the road, and the other on the rearview mirror. The jobs are out there—but for now, they’re mostly staying on paper.